Small but playful surf through most of the week. Watching for WNW-NW next weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Sunday) 10.9.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast!  We’re looking at small but playful combo energy in the water through most of the work week, with a couple of minor pulses of SSW (190-200) and a little bit of inconsistent WNW-NW (300+).  Better WNW-NW swell setting up for the end of the week into the weekend, and possibly holding through early next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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We’ve got a little bit of SSW (190-200) in the water right now with some small and inconsistent, but complimentary WNW-NW (300+) working its way around Pt. Conception.  Most areas are seeing small knee to waist high+ waves, and will continue to do so through midweek.

A little extra WNW-NW energy fills in Monday and Tuesday and could mean a few more waist to chest high waves for better W-NW exposures Tuesday, and Wednesday but overall its not looking all that impressive.

Looking a bit further out in the forecast, the models are currently showing a system tracking south of the Aleutians that should send another pulse of energy for Thursday.  This is going to kick off what could be a few days of small to moderate sized surf for W-NW exposures.  At the same time we’re going to be seeing a little bit more SSW (190-200) in the water.  When all is said and done, standouts could be more consistently in the waist to chest high+ range.  A lot will depend on exposure to the two swells, and its looking likely that combo spots could be the best bet.

The North Pacific is going to start showing some better cards mid to late this week, with a few systems that could produce better surf for the upcoming weekend.  The first of these larger storms could enter the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, generating 35+ foot seas as it does so. The storm will weaken as it moves closer to the West Coast, but should still maintain 25 to 35 knot winds over the swell as it moves east.  It looks like it might be a little too far north to bring solis surf to Southern California, but the models show the storms fetch skirting the window, so its possible that it could be a little better than some of the charts are suggesting.

Another low is expected to strengthen more late in the week as it approaches the West Coast.  This time in much closer proximity, and a bit lower in latitude, which would be good for us.  30-35+ foot seas only a couple thousand miles NW of the region.  So what does this mean for surf later this week and next weekend?

Well… we’re expecting this better sized pulse to arrive late Friday/Saturday.  This is going to bring more moderate sized surf to the region, with standouts running waist to head high.  There’s potential for some magnets and top exposures to see a few bigger sets going overhead or a little bigger, with more consistency in the chest to head high range.  The swell is supposed to hold some size through Sunday morning, easing more in the afternoon and evening.  Conditions are looking a little tricker.  We’re expecting onshore flow to pick up through the weekend as low pressure deepens along the West Coast.  There’s a far fetched chance that we could see a little precipitation or at least some drizzle over the weekend as well…  The other thing to keep an eye out for is going to be a deep morning high tide, that could slow things down a bit.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

It looks like things are going to cap off with one final blow.  The strongest of the systems is expected to move through the Gulf of Alaska next weekend, taking advantage of the chaos left behind its predecessors.

It’s still a bit far out on the models, but we could see a hefty system developing 35 to 40+ foot seas not far off the California/Oregon border over the weekend.  The proximity of that system would mean very large surf, potentially XXL for a few specialty spots along the West Coast.  It’s still unclear what conditions will be doing around then (although most models are pointing towards more onshore flow).  From the looks of it we can pretty much count on overhead to double overhead+ surf from this one along the Central California coast, with potential for double to triple overhead+ for standouts next Monday and Tuesday.  Southern California would be looking at consistent head high to well overhead surf for standout W-NW exposures.  Because of the proximity of the swell, it’s not going to be a lully one, and many breaks could be experiencing strong rips and currents.  The swell will have long 17 to 19 second periods and be very strong.  For most of you in Central California that means hazardous surf conditions, but a few brave ones out there may be licking their chops at the potential this guy brings.  I expect Southern California (conditions willing) be looking really fun.  We’ll have to wait and see though.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The South Pacific looks relatively boring compared to the North Pacific this week.  The only note-worthy swell would be a small system climbing into the mid-latitudes south of Tahiti midweek.

It’s not looking strong enough to send any significant surf, but does climb pretty high in latitude with a good trajectory, so I’m not ruling it out just yet.  Likely it will be smaller waves with some consistency arriving around the 20th.  More info on that later in the week.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, October 13, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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