Small surf through the weekend, storm expected Monday

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 2.15.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Weather kind of took a turn on us and stayed a little wet Wednesday for a few areas, but things clear up through the end of the week.  Surfwise we’re expecting smaller surf through that time period.  The next notable surf is due early next week, but it looks a bit stormy as low pressure could swing through the region, and generate a healthy dose of wind swell.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The southern hemi (190-200) and small WNW-NW swell mix in the water knee to waist high+ range, potentially chest high at standouts.  A little extra WNW energy late Thursday and Friday could help boost size at westerly breaks a little bit, and at the least make for more consistent knee to chest high waves.

Surf settles again mid to late Friday, and looks to remain on the smaller side through the weekend… Next swell situation presents itself Monday.

Despite a brief period of offshores, and lighter winds Friday, we’re looking at the return to onshores on Saturday as a cold trough starts to take hold over the West Coast.  That onshore trend is going to increase Sunday.  As of right now it doesn’t look like its going to be very wet, but keep an eye out for some showers possibly Monday.  As far as swell goes, the increased NW gradient along the Central Coast is going to mean NW wind swell is going to pick up a bit on Monday.  Current projections are for waist to head high surf, possibly a little bigger.  If the system swings more west it could pick up some moisture, and drives a more westerly gradient in to the Socal Bight.  That would mean potential for messier conditions and bigger surf… we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 15th could see a small increase in WNW energy as s.hemi fades.  Wave heights at standouts exposures could be running knee to chest high

Friday the 16th Surf backs off to knee to waist high+ as WNW energy eases.

Saturday the 17th small ankle to waist high surf along the exposed coast.

Sunday the 18th new NW wind swell could start building.  Standouts expected to be running knee to waist high+.

Monday the 19th WNW-NW swell/wind swell builds, possibly reaching waist to head high+ along the exposed coast late in the day.

Tuesday the 20th wind swell mix is expected to back off through the day as the storm moves west.  Winds could shift offshore.

Wednesday the 21st smaller surf expected on Wednesday.

 Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range models continue to show a series of lows generating fetch out near Japan/Kurile Is./Kamchatka Peninsula later this week and over the weekend.

The blocking high continues to push the storm track north into Alaska. This is keeping the swells from culminating as much energy as they would if the storms were more lateral across the North Pacific. Either way we should see another round of small swell energy arriving from the WNW-NW (295-310) mid to late Tuesday.

The long-range models continue to show potential for a more consistent pulse of WNW (290-305) arriving likely late next Thursday/Friday.  More details on that early next week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 19th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster