Small surf to start the week. Possibly a little bigger Wednesday

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 9.11.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Not a whole lot going on this week unfortunately, especially for the girls trying to compete at Trestles.  Nonetheless small S-SSW (180-205) swell mix is supposed to fill in and peak midweek.  A little bit of wind swell will build late in the week adding some combo, while more background S (170-180) adds to lingering southern hemi.  Long-range models are showing potential for another round of NW for mid-next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Leftover southerly background swell will ease through the start of the week blending with some new long-period SSW (195-205) filling in Monday and Tuesday.  The blend of energy with a little help from local wind swell could bring some knee to waist high+ surf for exposed spots the next couple of days.

The swell mix is due to peak on Wednesday, with potential for a few more waist high waves at exposed spots.  Standouts and magnets could actually see some consistent waist to chest+ sets even.  Average spots will be mostly knee to waist high still.  Wave heights could hold Thursday before easing some into the weekend.  W-NW exposures are expected to see a little added wind swell Friday and Saturday as NW winds pick up along the Central Coast.

Weatherwise, expect light to moderate onshore flow Monday and Tuesday, increasing more onshore Wednesday as the cut-off low bringing muggy weather and sub tropical moisture to the region starts to head inland.  When that happens we’re expecting NW winds over the outer waters to increase Thursday and Friday.  Potential for more of an overnight eddy circulation to take over in the mornings this weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 11th additional SSW swell in the water helps maintain knee to waist high surf at standouts maybe some waist high+ sets for combo spots.

Tuesday the 12th knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.

Wednesday the 13th SSE expected to fill in late, possibly generating some more frequent knee to chest high waves at standouts.

Thursday the 14th knee to chest high surf at standouts.  NW wind swell could start to build as well.

Friday the 15th, southerly swell mix backs off into the knee to waist high+ range at standouts, but some extra NW could mean occasional waist-chest high sets still for combo spots

Saturday the 16th leftover background swell mix provides knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.  Keeping an eye on potential eddy circulation in the morning kicking up some texture

Sunday the 17th smaller knee to waist high surf as S swell fades and NW wind swlel eases more.

Tropical Overview

Keeping an eye on several areas of low pressure developing south of Mainland Mexico and Baja over the next few days. 5-day predictions are suggesting 20%, 40%, and 70%. Global models don’t give much credit to the 20 and 40 percenters. That red one though, could develop into a solid system, but none of the models are showing it turning into a swell maker for California. I’ll keep an eye on it and have an update for you on Thursday though.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-Range forecast models are showing potential for a large low to develop in the Gulf of Alaska over the upcoming weekend/early next week. The GFS and NAVGEM aren’t in great agreement on the strength, and this time of year it’s still pretty early to make a very confident call.

Regardless though there’s a chance we could be seeing some long-period WNW-NW (290-305) early to mid-next week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Mostly minimal surf coming out of the Southern Pacific in the long term.  I doubt that things have shut down for good, but its’ probably going to be on the smaller side for awhile.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 14th. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster