Smaller but playful surf through most of the week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 7.17.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

This week starts off with small/inconsistent tropical swell and some small southern hemi in the background.  There could also be some weaker WNW-NW wind swell creeping in as well.  Overall a smaller week though.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

As I mentioned its going to be a bit of a slower week.  There is some tropical swell in the water from Hurricane Fernanda, which is located about 1,500 miles SW of Socal right now.  The problem with Fernanda is that she’s on a mostly westward trajectory, focusing most of her swell energy towards Hawaii.  Still the storm is Category 3, and radial dispersion of the swell should mean at least some small to moderate waves over the next few days, albeit pretty inconsistent.

There’s also the addition of some small background swell from the SSW-SW (200-210) and weak wind swell.  The whole mix is supposed to peak early Wednesday with around 2-3 feet of swell.  Wave heights are expected to be running in the knee to chest high range for most standout exposures.  There could be some bigger sets around chest-head high at magnets, but don’t hold your breath.  Wave heights are expected to taper off through the second half of the week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 17th wind swell could bring some knee to waist high+ waves to the exposed coast.  Standout southerly exposures are seeing a little bit of tropical energy creeping in, bringing knee to chest high waves to standouts.

Tuesday the 18th Inconsistent tropical energy and small southern hemi blend together for knee to chest high waves at standouts, possibly some bigger sets at summer magnets.  Small wind swell produce knee to waist high waves at standouts.

Wednesday the 19th SSW and tropical swell from Fernanda reach a peak early.  Wave heights continue to run knee to chest high at standouts, with some plus size sets at better exposures.

Thursday the 20th tropical swell and southern hemi energy start to ease.  Still likely that standouts will be running knee to chest, but the swell will back down somewhat through the day.

Friday the 21st, southerly swell mix should linger in the knee to waist high+ range at standouts.

Saturday the 22nd mostly smaller knee to waist high surf along the exposed coast.  Maybe a little extra wind swell, but too early to call.

Sunday the 23rd surf holds in the knee to waist high+ range.

Tropical Overview

Swell from Fernanda is going to be pretty inconsistent, but potentially could bring some knee to waist high+ waves to standout S-SW exposures over the next couple of days. Beyond that, there are a couple other areas of interest in the tropics. The first has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, while the second has a 30% chance. Global models aren’t too keen on the idea of either turning into anything all that exciting, and the consensus is that they will continue to follow warm water west towards Hawaii instead of taking a more northward approach, which would be more ideal for producing surf in California.v

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

No swell makers at this time.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Not a whole lot worth talking about in the South Pacific… The most we’re looking at is some smaller background swell between now and the end of the month. Maybe enough to keep a few knee to waist high+ waves in the water at standouts southerly exposures.

There is one small system in the Tasman Sea that could generate some inconsistent (and still pretty small) SW (220-230) for around the end of the month. It’s not a very strong storm though, and the resulting swell will still have to make its way through the gauntlet of South Pacific Islands. If the fetch turns into something more notable, I’ll let you know.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 20th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster