Smaller overlapping WNW-NW swells continue

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Austin Gendron
(Saturday) 1.26.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Sorry for the delay, I was hoping that postponing a couple of days would make the surf situation a little better.  Truth is conditions are really good right now, but the storm track is set up to mostly deliver smaller overlapping pulses of long period WNW (295-310) energy for about as far out as we can predict.  The cause is a large ridge of high pressure persisting over the NE Pacific and West Coast, pushing storms around our area.  It possible that the trend could shift late next week, but models are not in agreement.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise we’re going to continue to see smaller knee to chest high surf for most of the regions standout westerly exposures through the weekend and most of next week, with a couple smaller days between swells.  Conditions are pegged to be pretty decent though with light variable offshore winds.

Day to day changes aren’t expected to be all that noticeable, although the current swell will be relaxing through the start of next week.  The next overlapping pulse arriving Monday should bring back more consistent knee to chest high surf for a peak Tuesday/Wednesday.  Early to mid morning sessions may be the way to go with a dropping tide and light offshore winds.  The afternoon tide swing is going to be pretty weak, so don’t expect much extra help there.

The ridge could start to relax later in the week, allowing a little extra onshore flow and maybe even some small shorter period energy to build along the exposed coast.  Still not expecting size to really change much.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Saturday the 26th Small West-Northwest long-period swell holds, with wave heights in the knee to chest high range at standouts

Sunday the 27th smaller leftovers expected.  Light winds in the morning.  Wave heights in the knee to waist high+ range

Monday the 28th new long-period energy starts to fill in, helping maintain knee to waist high surf at standouts.

Tuesday the 29th new Westerly swell builds a little more

Wednesday the 30th surf could pick up a little more with wave heights in the knee to chest high range

Thursday the 31st looks a little questionable, with possible wind swell added to the mix.  Wave heights expected to hold in the knee to chest high range.

Friday the 32nd Keeping an eye on a possible storm arrival.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

As we look further out the long-range models are continuing to show a very similar pattern with high pressure blocking the storm track in the NE Pac, and pushing most storms up north into the Arctic before they make their way back down through the Rockies and Midwest.

The main storm generation area is way out west near Japan and south of the Kamchatka Peninsula.  There is a steady stream of decent sized storms, but they primarily are going to stay west of the dateline, cutting down on the strength the of the swells they send.  Still we should see a couple more long-period pulses, arriving through the start of February.  The most notable is expected to arrive next weekend with very long-periods.

Again size isn’t all that great, but he long periods could help send some sneaky sets Saturday next week.  Again we need to keep an eye on the weather though as some models are suggesting possible storm activity moving through in the same time frame.  Beyond that watching for another smaller pulse arriving early to mid the following week.  Still too early to call that though.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on some smaller southerly swells due around the 2nd/3rd of February and another possibly more prominent pulse around the 7th.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster


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    Thanks for the update.