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Austin Gendron
(Sunday) 7.29.18

Smaller surf this week, and possibly most of next week

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Mostly small, sometimes-moderate sized and lingering SSW (190-200) swell in the water through the upcoming week following the sizable pulse that brought solid surf to the region last week.  There will be a little extra SSW from a similar angle arriving Tuesday to help maintain size but otherwise fairly uneventful week ahead.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, there are still a couple of magnets pulling in some waist to chest high+ waves from last weeks swell mix out of the SSW (195-205) for the most part though wave heights are in the knee to waist high range along the exposed coast, and will continue to become less consistent and smaller over the next couple of days.  Tuesday a small mix of SSW-SW (200–215) is going to arrive, bringing a couple feet of mixed swell to the regions standouts.

That should help maintain some knee to chest high waves at standouts Wednesday and Thursday, but it does look like there will be some shadowing issues.  For those of you who are planning on braving the crowds of teenie boppers and hooligans in HB this week… doesn’t look like there will be a whole lot of surf unfortunately.

Conditions are expected to be pretty typical, with light variable morning winds, possibly a southerly component for a few areas, then building onshore through the afternoons.  Monsoonal moisture could mean some muggy weather the next few days.  The warm ridge is supposed to return later in the week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Sunday the 29th SSW continues to ease, into the knee to chest high+ range.

Monday the 30th lingering SSW in the knee to waist high+ range

Tuesday the 31st new SSW starts to build helping maintain knee to waist high waves.

Wednesday the 1st SSW and a little SW in the water will help maintain knee to waist high+ waves

Thursday the 2nd surf holds

Friday the 3rd could be a little added wind swell in the water.  Otherwise wave heights continue running knee to waist high+ along the exposed coast

Saturday the 4th smaller surf as the SSW-SW mix eases.

Tropical Overview

Not a whole lot going on in the tropics that will result in swell at the moment

There is currently an are of low pressure SW of the coast of Central Mexico that is worth keeping an eye on though.  The NHC is giving it a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range shows potential for another smaller and inconsistent SW (210-220) due around the 8th/9th of August.

Similar to the SW component of the swell mix due later this week, this one has to make its way through the Tahiti and the other French Polynesian islands.  So there wont be much that gets through.  Still too early to call, but i’d expect the SW arriving around the 8th/9th.  Based on the current models, it could be smaller and more inconsistent than the swell coming later this week as well.

Longer range models are showing a stronger system, with potentially a better angle… caveat is that its super far out, and I’m not confident the models are going to hold the strength as they mature.  We’ll have to wait and see though.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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