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Smaller surf through the weekend, but it looks clean!

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Austin Gendron
by
(Thursday) 10.6.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast!  Despite fairly good conditions and the models showing a more active North Pacific over the next few days… Southern California continues to see smaller surf with mostly background energy from the Southern Hemisphere through the upcoming weekend.  Keeping an eye on potential for NPac swell to roll through next week though.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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Overlapping SSW (190-200) will keep smaller knee to waist high+ surf in the water through the weekend and early next week.  There will also be some small WNW-NW (300+) working its way around Pt. Conception helping things out, but overall similar surf to what we’re seeing today, if not a little smaller.  Conditions should be pretty good with morning offshores and a light afternoon sea breeze.  We continue to recover from a new moon last weekend, which is going to mean kind of a funky dead tide in the mornings through the weekend.  Basically the low and the highs are going to be very similar so not much water moving as a result.  By early next week we should start to see things moving again.

The background S-SSW (180-200) in the water will help maintain small knee to waist high+ waves through the start of next week, but we are expecting some extra energy from the Pitcairn’s to arrive.  It doesn’t look like a ton of new swell, but enough to help maintain if not boost wave heights a little bit more at southerly exposures.  The big news though is going to be the arrival of the first long-period WNW-NW (290-305) energy of the season.

The models are currently showing a system tracking SW of the Aleutians that should send some nice long-period swell our way for early next week.  The models are showed the storm peaking yesterday with 30+ foot seas and a decent east trajectory, but its still pretty far away and teetering on that imaginary line that is the Socal swell window.  Luckily wind models continue to show some of the fetch following the progressing swell as it moves along the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska over the next couple days.

That should help add a little more consistency and power to the swell as it moves towards California.  As of right now we’re expecting the 19-second forerunners to start arriving on Monday.  The small swell should build to a peak late Tuesday/early Wednesday.  The good news is that the North Pacific has a series of lows stacked up behind it… and could mean potentially bigger waist to head high surf by next weekend.  Again… too early to call, but worth keeping an eye on.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The North Pacific keeps the ball rolling (albeit inconsistently) with a couple more lows tracking along the Aleutians and working their way into the Gulf of Alaska.

There have been have been many changes over the past couple days so I’m not confident in the outcome…. but we’re definitely looking at an increase in WNW-NW energy.

For most of you I’m sure this isn’t the exciting pink blob you want to see… but its still really yellow and green…. which means something to me…  It’s fall.  Although a bit aggressive, it could be a fun swell if conditions hold.  We’ll have to see…

South Pacific Swell Forecast

I wish I had some better news from this hemisphere… but I don’t. … the small background swell expected over the next week will basically  hold… nothing special on the menu other than knee to waist high surf.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, October 10, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

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