Smaller surf through the weekend, fun SSW due next week

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Austin Gendron
(Wednesday) 9.19.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Back in town, sorry for the delay.  Fun mix of S-SSW swell and wind swell ease through the second half of the week.  There will be a little extra SW (215-220) building during that time, but it’s looking pretty inconsistent and small regardless.  Early next week we’re expecting a couple more small overlapping pulses of SSW (195-205).  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, we’re looking at slowly easing surf through the upcoming weekend.  Thursday should be running knee to chest high+ at standouts, but size will settle in the knee to waist high range through the weekend.  It is possible that there could be some waist high+ sets at standouts while the SW peaks over the weekend, but for the most part smaller surf. Keep an eye on the medium high tide mid morning.

Early next week we’re looking at a mix of swell picking back up.  The models are suggesting a trough could drop down the coast, potentially bringing some onshore winds and wind swell… we’ll have to see how that plays out though.  More promising is a small mix of overlapping SSW pulses due early to mid-next week.

It’s looking like there could a couple feet+ of combined long period swell in the water Tuesday and Wednesday as the swell mix peaks.  The blend of energy could mean wave heights building back into the waist to chest high+ potentially head high range during the peak at standouts.  Most spots are going to be in the knee to waist high+ range though.  Depending on the onshore winds, conditions are questionable, but likely not to be too bad, and if there is wind swell the additional energy could create periods of fun combo energy.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 19th Swell mix holds in the waist to chest high+ range at standouts.

Friday the 20th The mix of southern hemi and wind swell should bring knee to chest high surf to standouts.

Saturday the 21st swell mix eases into knee to waist high+ range at standouts.

Sunday the 22nd surf holds in knee to waist high+ range at standouts, ankle to waist high at more average breaks.

Monday the 23rd new SSW and possibly some wind swell start to build.  Wave heights expected to be in the knee to chest high range.

Tuesday the 24th Surf continues to build, potential for waist to chest high+ surf.

Wednesday the 25th Swell mix is expected to peak in the waist to head high range

Tropical Overview

No likely tropical swell makers at the moment.  The 5-day models show a small chance of a storm forming off the SW coast of Mexico, but it’s still too far out, and the global models are not in agreement at all.

We’ll have to keep an eye on it.  Keep watching the tropical models for updates.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific is starting to look like its on the verge of some activity, but the global models are not in agreement on whether that activity could become a swell maker or not…. More than likely not though.  More details in the next report.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range models are looking quiet, which isn’t much different than the rest of the summer has been, but there is a small system showing up south of the Pitcairn’s over the weekend that could generate a little surf for the end of the month.

It’s still too early to call, and not likely to be a big swell either way.  The storm is focused towards Chile and it would be a pretty tough angler spread to send any solid surf our way.  It’s more likely to be small and inconsistent, but we’ll have to wait and see.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster