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Solid swell for the start of the week

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Austin Gendron
by
(Monday) 1.15.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Temperatures cool off a little bit this week and conditions shift more onshore as new long-period WNW-NW (295-305) brings solid surf to the region through the first half of the week.  Surf settles through the end of the week, then we are looking at another low pressure system moving through the region.  BTW… Rincon north is basically a no-man’s land.  SB County Public Health Department has closed all beaches from Carp to Pt. Conception… Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Quick update on the situation in Santa Barbara County 

… And it’s not expected to be lifted before the next swell, so surf at your own risk…

High pressure struggles to hang on through the first half of the week, but does so enough to at least continue the morning offshores while new WNW (295-305) fills and builds to a 4-6 foot peak late Monday and Tuesday with periods around 17 seconds.

Surfwise that means wave heights in the head high to well overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Probably a bit bigger at magnets. The swell is expected to hold its peak through early Wednesday at least.  Note that South Bay, South OC, and North San Diego counties are going to see a bit of shadowing from the islands, so size could vary a bit spot to spot.  Surf eases mid to late in the week.

By the end of the week we’re looking at more interesting situation, where passing lows could start to impact the region as well as bring another increase in W-WNW (275-310) swell energy.  It’s still a bit early to call, but the conservative call is for some precipitation and breezy winds while surf builds into the waist to head high+ range.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 15th new long-period WNW energy arrives, wave heights expected to increase into the chest to overhead+ range.

Tuesday the 16th new WNW-NW continues building.  Standouts could be seeing head high to well overhead+ surf.

Wednesday the 17th WNW-NW swell mix expected to hold standouts likely to be in the head high to well overhead high+ range early, then ease through the afternoon.

Thursday the 18th Surf should ease into the waist to head high+ range at standouts.

Friday the 19th new mix o long period WNW-NW starts building as storm arrives.  The swell mix should mean waist to head high surf at standouts through most of the day, building late.

Saturday the 20th The swell mix peaks, with standouts running chest to overhead high+, possibly a little bigger.  Conditions expected to improve.

Sunday the 21st surf eases into the waist to chest high+ range as conditions improve at standouts.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

Long range models are looking pretty pathetic right now.  The last pulse of energy from the upcoming train is due late in the weekend/early next week.  After that….

The models aren’t showing much.  There’s one system out near the Kurile Islands, but its weak.  That means not much swell and not much surf.  In addition, it looks like the jet stream is going to weaken through the Mid Pacific for at least a few days, but the next wave of energy could be building up south of Korea, and start to crank out some more swell by the end of the month.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 18th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/