Solid tropical/s.hemi mix eases through the weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 7.13.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Solid surf leftover from Eugene and overlapping-southern-hemi-swell mix will ease gradually through the end of the week and weekend.  We could see a little uptick in wind swell early next week as the NW gradient off the Central Coast picks up with building high pressure.  After that though… maybe some smaller tropical swell and southern hemi mix for mid to late next week.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The surf is going to hold moderate size through at least Thursday for standout exposures.  That means surf in the chest to overhead+ range still.  Most exposed areas will probably be seeing surf in the waist to chest high+ range still.  We’re still expecting lighter morning conditions, with the incoming tide, and added texture and bump in the afternoon for most W-SW exposures.

The swell mix will continue to ease through the weekend, likely backing off into the knee to chest high range Saturday/Sunday.  Conditions are looking a little more interesting as high pressure builds, issuing in some monsoonal moisture.  Weather is probably going to be a bit on the warm and humid side through the weekend.

That same high pressure is supposed to increase the NW winds off the Central California coast over the weekend.  It’s possible that a few westerly exposures could be seeing some small wind swell filling in late Sunday/Monday.  Hard to say how much, but likely not to exceed knee to waist high+ at standouts.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 13th tropical swell and southern hemi energy start to ease.  Still likely that standouts will be running chest to overhead, but the swell will back down somewhat quickly through the day.

Friday the 14th, southerly swell mix should linger in the waist to head high+ range at standouts.

Saturday the 15th mostly smaller waist to head high surf along the exposed coast.

Sunday the 16th surf eases more into the knee to chest high+ range .

Monday the 10th Wind swell could bring some knee to waist high+ waves to the expoesd coast.  Standout southerly exposures could be a little smaller.

Tuesday the 11th smaller southern hemi energy in the water maybe some wind swell.  Wave heights likely not to exceed knee to waist high+.

Wednesday the 12th keeping an eye some new long-period southern hemi that could creep in from the S-SSW, and tropical swell from Fernanda.

Tropical Overview

Eugene continues to move NW as a post-tropical cyclone, and will fizzle out through the end of the week. TH next system we look at it TS Fernanda which is currently located several hundred miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja and generating 35 kt winds.

Unlike Eugene, Fernanda is being controlled by high pressure to her north. This is going to push her west instead of ideally northwest. SO despite good environmental conditions and a likelihood that the system will become a hurricane over the next couple days, it looks like the trajectory is going to be mostly west. A little bit of the swell energy will be spun off to the north, but it won’t be concentrated very well, and likely the resulting small surf will be inconsistent. As of right now the forecast calls for this S-SW (180-210) to arrive next Wednesday.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

No swell makers at this time.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

So earlier in the week a mentioned a decent sized system south of Tahiti/French Polynesia. Well it’s still there, but unfortunately it’s taken a turn for the worst… and I mean “turn” quite literally.

The storm has turned its fetch mostly eastward towards Chile. That is going to cut down on the amount of swell energy focused towards California, which in turn means smaller surf. It looks like there’s still a little bit of the fetch aimed N-NE so we could still see some small to moderate sized waves mid to late next week, but its not looking nearly as promising. I doubt we’ll see much change over the next 24 hours, but if it does, I’ll have an update for you on Monday. Aside from that no other mentionable swell makers at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 17th of July. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster