Solid WNW-NW swells arrive for Wednesday

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Austin Gendron
(Sunday) 11.25.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Smaller surf to start off the week as wind swell eases and small southern hemi lingers in the background.  The next mix of WNW-NW (290-310) is expected to start showing up late Tuesday.  Wednesday night into Thursday we’re expecting stormier weather to bring in a mix of wind swell that will join longer-period energy, building to a potentially decent sized mix of surf through the second half of the work week.  The swell mix eases through the upcoming weekend.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise, the current mix of small SSW swell is bringing ankle to waist high surf to standouts.  Conditions are supposed to be light in the mornings the next couple of days, with light to moderate onshores in the afternoons.

While we patiently wait, the North Pacific is brewing something solid.  A couple of systems recently tracking across the Dateline have combined their powers and sent what is going to be a mix of longer-period swell energy.  The first and smaller pulse is due to arrive late Tuesday and could mean some waist to head high sets at standout westerly breaks around dark.  The second and more potent pulse arrives early Wednesday.

Surf is expected to bump up into the moderate to plus sized range with wave heights running chest high to overhead+, potentially a little bigger at top exposures.  Conditions are supposed to be a little quieter on Wednesday morning, shifting onshore in the afternoon.  There is a chance though that we could see worse conditions late in the day depending on the speed at which the swell producing storm comes in… yup that’s right its headed for Socal.

In addition to breezy onshore winds, it’s likely to rain possibly starting late Wednesday with rain showers possible through Friday.  That’s going to mean poor water quality and messy mixed up conditions.  The strong winds are going to likely mean a second boost of surf on Friday as well.  I wouldn’t expect much for conditions unless you know the spot can handle onshores.  Surf begins to ease some through the weekend, although onshore winds are expected to continue to add texture and wonkiness to exposed spots.  Read more bellow.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Sunday the 25th another S swell arrives, overlapping the previous one.  This should mean knee to waist high+ surf continues.

Monday the 26th SSW swell mix continues to bring knee to waist high+ surf.

Tuesday the 27th southern hemi swell continues to bring knee to waist high surf to standouts.  Potential for forerunners for the next NW swell to arrive.

Wednesday the 28th new WNW-NW swell builds through the morning, bringing chest to overhead+ surf to the exposed coast, possibly bigger at standouts.  Keeping an eye on increased onshores and potential for rain late in the day.

Thursday the 29th likely wet weather and breezy onshore winds as WNW-NW swell mix continuing to bring chest to overhead surf through the day.

Friday the 30th WNW-NW swell mix could pick up again thanks to the onshore winds, bringing chest to overhead high+ surf at standouts.

Saturday the 1st The WNW-NW swell mix and some background SSW should continue to bring waist to head high surf.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Not a whole lot going on with the Npac models for the time being.  There’s a little system north of Hawaii, but high pressure over Alaska is going to make it spin kinda funny, and not send any swell towards California.

Another stronger system does appear near the dateline about 180 hours out, but it’s too far out to call right now, and also really far north to generate very good swell for Socal.  We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere is looking quieter, with only small background swells being spun off of a couple zonal systems bouncing along the melting ice shelf.  Nothing too exciting to report there.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster