Southerly swell eases through the end of the week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 6.11.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SSW (190-205) peaked with some solid surf at southerly exposures Monday.  The swell will hood some size Tuesday before it starts easing through the work week.  Small windswell will follow suit.  Next weekend we’re expecting some smaller but still fun S (180-190) and SW (210-220) combo swell, with the SW being dominant and likely bringing some small to moderate sized surf.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise the easing SSW and windswell are going to mean surf running waist to head high+ at standouts likely through Wednesday still.  Conditions are looking light, although should be trending lightly onshore, especially south of LA, where extremely hot inland conditions are going to be driving a bit of a thermal gradient it looks like.

The trend will continue downward as the swell mix lingers through the end of the work week.  We’re expecting a couple of smaller but still fun sized S and SW swells to arrive Saturday.  The long period energy should build to a peakSunday into Monday of next week.  Wave heights are expected to be running knee to chest high for the average spots, with a few head high-head high+ sets at standouts.  Conditions are looking questionable, with a trough moving through the region, and pulling in some tropical moisture from Hurricane Bud… that moisture is still in question, and is more likely to move further to the east, but still worth keeping an eye on.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 11th southern hemi peaks. Surf should be running chest to overhead high+ at standout southerly exposures

Tuesday the 12th southern hemi should hold pretty solid size at least through the morning.

Wednesday the 13th SSW swell mix starts to ease, but there should still be some solid size at standouts with set waves in the head high to overhead range.  More average spots will be in the waist to chest high+ range

Thursday the 14th southern hemi eases.  Wave heights will be running knee to chest high+ at standouts

Friday the 15th southern hemi continues to back off into the knee to waist high+ range.

Saturday the 16th New southern hemi combo swell starts to arrive.  Surf should be mostly running knee to chest high+

Sunday the 17th Wave heights build a little more as the S tops out and SSW continues to build a little.

Tropical Overview

Bud did end up turning into a decent size storm blowing with category 3 strength winds, unfortunately the system doesn’t look like its going to make its way far enough west to send swell to California.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models continue to show the summer swell pattern taking hold.  Next up we’re looking at a couple of more southerly pules around the 23rd/24th.

The first system is in the right spot, but doesn’t take a great northerly track.  It pushes up a little bit before turning to the east.  Either way it should be a little more consistent than the second one…

which is going to push farther east, and although looks stronger will not be in the swell window quite as much, and focused more towards Chile instead of north towards California.  We’ll have to wait and see, but I’m expecting smaller knee to chest high surf from these swells.  Stay tuned

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 14th..  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster