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Southern hemi late this week

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Austin Gendron
by
(Thursday) 9.22.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! No major updates today.  Medium-long-period WNW (290-305) and windswell mix eases through the weekend.  New SW (200-210) builds to a peak Friday before trailing off through early next week.  New s.hemi arrives late next week as small to moderate sized WNW-NW continues.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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WNW-NW (295-315) eases through the end of the week.. Wave heights should be running waist to head high through Friday.  Conditions are going to be a bit tricky.  NW winds are expected to be a bit breezy and last through Friday as well, meaning textured bumpy surf for a couple days.

New southern hemi swell starts filling in through the day too….  Forerunners should be around 18 to 19 seconds during the peak on Friday.  Wave heights are expected to increase into the waist to head high+ range.  With a few standouts seeing occasionally bigger sets going overhead.  Size will ease through the weekend.  We should also see another moderate sized pulse of WNW-NW (295-315) arriving early Saturday.  This guy will help maintain waist to head high surf along the exposed coast with a few bigger sets in the head high+ to overhead+ range at standouts Saturday and Sunday.  Size will ease through early next week.

Background energy from the North Pacific should help maintain knee to chest high+ surf at standouts through the first half of next week…

Tropical Overview

Now that Paine swell is winding down we’re looking out towards the next one… which is actually pretty amazing to say considering we’ve had a fairly shitty tropical season.  As of right now nothing is happening, but the long-range models are showing a potentially solid system developing early next week.  The models are nowhere near in agreement… and in reality this one could require a weekend update which I don’t normally due… but I’ll keep an eye on it.  If it does materialize keep an eye on small to moderate sized surf mid to late next week.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range forecast models are showing a quieter pattern in the North Pacific over the next week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Again…. not much new going on in the forecast… There are a couple of a systems moving off the ice shelf currently that should shoot some solid surf our way for next weekend.

The first system has passed, and the second system is looking on course for  sending another pulse behind it.  Initial 18 to 20-second periods are expected  on Wednesday..  That means inconsistent and spotty surf… after that consistency and size should improve.  Wave heights along the exposed coast will likely increase to waist to head high… standouts and magnets are likely to see chest to overhead+ sets.

Long-range models are showing a slightly less productive southern hemisphere situation.  the most optimistic situation would bring some SSW for around the 4th or 5th… but its still too early to call.  Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 26, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/

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  • http://stefanwrobel.com/ Stefan Wrobel

    Considering how many swells are in the water, this is a surprisingly terse update. I miss the days of Adam’s thorough reports.