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Southern hemi swells are starting to become more consistent

3 Comments
Austin Gendron
by
(Tuesday) 4.2.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Southern hemi swell peaks through midweek, with a small pulse of long-period NW (300+) and wind swell.  The swell mix will ease some Thursday and Friday.  Models are suggesting a better pulse of long-period WNW (290-310) for the weekend, but it’s still about 48 hours out.  After that there’s some fun SSW (185-195) due for mid-next week to help hold us over.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

There’s some fun-sized surf in the water right now, mostly from the southern hemi that’s currently peaking.  Wave heights are running knee to chest high, with a few magnets seeing bigger sets.  Unfortunately there’s a bit of a wind bump on the surface for most exposed spots.  Looks like the next couple days are probably going to be similar as the onshore winds continue.  Size starts to decrease more Thursday and continues to back off through Saturday morning, with no notable improvements

A couple weak systems could bring some light precipitation to the south over the next few days.  Nothing too exciting though.

The southern hemi trails off this weekend, but it looks like we could see another increase in WNW-NW (290-300+) swell and wind swell over the weekend.

The storm looks like its going to power up as it moves north of Hawaii about 48 hours out.  It’s still kinda far out (given this time of year when the models are typically not very predictable and change a bit more loosely).  It’s likely though that we’re going to see at least some playful sized surf, with swell building late Saturday into Sunday.  If there’s any hype around this storm, I wouldn’t bye into it too much.  The angle (295-310) isn’t ideal and although strong its a quick shot, so surf will probably ramp up on Sunday with some chest to head high+ waves, maybe a little bigger at magnets, and then back off again for Monday and Tuesday of next week as medium period energy fills in behind.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 3rd southern hemi continues to bring mostly knee to chest high+ surf to standouts, with some wind bump on the surface.

Thursday the 4th swell mix starts to ease a little bit while light to moderate onshore conditions continue

Friday the 5th smaller day, mostly knee to waist high+ at standouts.

Saturday the 6th Smaller southern hemi as new WNW-NW approaches late.

Sunday the 7th knee to chest high surf at standouts as WNW-NW builds and peaks.  There could be some bigger sets in the chest to head high+ range at magnets, conditions look best in the morning.

Monday the 8th WNW-NW mix starts to ease, with more mid period energy .

Tuesday the keeping an eye on new southern hemi arriving from the south as WNW-NW mix lingers.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range models for the North Pacific are bit questionable right now.  You can’t trust much more than a couple days out, and even then… it’s not going to be able to go all in on the forecast.  With that said the long-range models do look to quiet down a bit.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The South Pacific like the North Pacific is quite volatile right now.  The patterns are constantly changing.  I did mention a swell for next week though, so here’s the deal.

The main pattern is zonal, with the strongest storms staying close to the developing sea ice off the coast of Antarctica.  Typical of a neutral/slightly positive El Nino year though we are starting to see some mid latitude activity separated from the main storm track.  Over the next day or so we’re going to see a developing storm just west of the Pitcairn Islands.  It’s small, only generating up to 30 foot seas, but it’s a concentrated storm, and also at a decent latitude and with an almost ideal NNE trajectory towards Southern California.  The S-SSW (185-195) swell is likely to show up next Wednesday, and could mean some fun waist to chest high+ waves rolling through at standouts, maybe even a little bigger for magnets.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster

http://www.solspot.com/

  • https://www.facebook.com/app_scoped_user_id/YXNpZADpBWEc2U3lncWNXX0txcWl5cEttLVhSakdxU0lMVjdCa3F6RFd5YXVrUVA1a0YyYm9YNTl4bzJWb284OUlQVFlaekgxUU1scG0tVWtqU0JhU1YwMFAwM242Uk5IQldtR0RnTEd4R2xsbVQ5awZDZD/ Kurt Scherler

    Are you doing weekly updates anymore? Seems to be random every 2 or 3 weeks

  • Elyah Doryon

    i used to visit this site for the long range forecasts. whats with the inconsistency?

  • J-D

    Monthly surf forecasts are useless.
    Austin, your best asset was the long-range discussion.
    Was a great site, could be again. Although it’s been defunct for 2+ years now…

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