Southern hemis are starting to take over. Solid SSW in the water, with another one due next week

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 5.14.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

There’s some small WNW-NW in the water today, mixing with peaking SSW (190-200) that should hold through Tuesday.  The SSW is looking pretty solid for exposed areas, although onshore winds are adding some unwanted texture and bump in the afternoons.  As the SSW eases through the second half of the week, we’re looking at another increase in wind swell possibly, and some wide SW (220-230) through the end of the week.  Could be looking at another solid SSW (190-200) early to mid-next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise Tuesday is going to look pretty solid still.  There wont by as much WNW-NW energy working its way into combo spots, but still expecting waist to head high+ sets at southerly exposures.

The wind swell expected to pick up Tuesday afternoon again, so the earlier you can get out the better.  Wednesday we’re looking at new SW (220-230) arriving with long periods and helping mitigate some of the loss of energy from the SSW as it eases.  The overall consensus though is that we’re going to see surf at southerly exposures starting to back off a little bit.

A trough approaches Wednesday, and is likely to move through Wednesday night.  Weather wise it looks mostly dry, but could bring a little drizzle to parts of LA/Ventura.  More noticeable will be the increase in NW winds on Thursday.  The winds will drive wind swell, that could bring additional knee to waist high+ surf to the inconsistent knee to chest high SW in the water.  Conditions are likely to be a bit mixed up.

The winds swell could linger through the weekend as SW backs off a little bit as well.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 14th southern hemi builds to a peak. Surf should be running waist to head high+ at standout southerly exposures

Tuesday the 15th southern hemi continues to peak.  Standouts could be seeing waist to head high+ surf.  Winds expected to be breezy in the afternoon.

Wednesday the 16th keeping an eye on increasing wind swell late and long-period SW as well as SSW starts to ease.  Wave heights should be running waist to chest high+ at standouts

Thursday the 17th WNW-NW windswell peaks late. Wave heights expected to be waist to chest high+ keep an eye on the winds

Friday the 18th swell mix holds in the waist to chest high+ range early.  Eddy winds possible.  Surf starts to ease late in the day.

Saturday the 19th surf backs off into the knee to chest high range

Sunday the 20th smaller knee to waist high+ surf.


Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Well it looks like the models are starting to shape up.  Last week, I mentioned a better SSW for around the 23rd.  That was a bit of a conservative estimate, as the strength of the system is actually looking like it is probably going to be arriving next Monday the 21st.

The storm’s fetch looks strong enough to generate 35-40 foot seas as it starts to push northeast on a fairly ideal track for Southern California.  The storm will continue to push north, reaching as high as 35S while still generating seas in the 25-30 foot range.  That means consistent and likely solid surf on the way fro the first half of next week.  It’s still too early to call exact size, but if I were to make an educated guess, I’d say waist to head high+ at least, with potential for more size as it looks like there could be a mix of energy from that little system in front of it… we’ll have to wait and see.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 17th..  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster