SSW eases. Small tropical SSW to help maintain surfable size

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 8.21.17

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SSW (195-205) eases through midweek.  We’re expecting a little bit of tropical swell from Kenneth Wednesday/Thursday.  A new mix of S/SSW energy due over the weekend keeping small but surfable waves in the water through the start of next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

SSW (195-205) eases slowly through the first half of the week only to be replaced by a weak SSW-SW (190-210) pulse of tropical swell from Hurricane Kenneth.  Kenneth is pretty far west for delivering swell to Socal, but it’s expected to take a NNW-NW over the next couple days, so we should expect at least some knee to waist high+ maybe chest high waves late Wednesday and Thursday.

Aside from that we’re expecting some WNW-NW wind swell mixed in, but not enough to be super prominent.  A few westerly facing breaks, closer to Pt. Conception might see some knee to waist high+ waves on occasion through the second half of the week.

Saturday and Sunday a new mix of small to moderate S/SSW (180-200) arrives from a couple of systems south of the Pitcairn’s and Easter Island last week.  Most of that swell energy wasn’t focused in the right direction, so its going to be on the smaller side and show up with some inconsistency.  Still… Energy builds Saturday and Sunday peaking on Monday with wave heights in the knee to chest high range when combined.  Otherwise most average spots will be running ankle to waist high into early next week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 21st SSW swell eases more, with standouts running knee to chest high

Tuesday the 22nd knee to waist high+ surf as southern hemi swell eases

Wednesday the 23rd SSW tropical swell starts to creep in, maintaining knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.

Thursday the 24th knee to chest high surf at standout southerly exposures as tropical swell peaks

Friday the 25th, southerly swell mix holds with mostly knee to waist high+ waves at standouts.

Saturday the 26th new SSW starts to fill in, likely maintaining knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.

Sunday the 27th S swell joins SSW energy possibly bringing knee to chest high waves by the end of the day.

Tropical Overview

Hurricane Kenneth sort of came out of nowhere this weekend reminding us that the tropics are very unpredictable. The storm has been on a westerly track the past day or so, but is about to veer to the north as it maxes out as a CAT 3 Hurricane. The swell is pretty far west for sending swell to California unfortunately. It’s likely that Central California will see some small knee to chest high waves midweek, and Socal could be in the knee to waist high+ range, but periods are looking pretty short and it won’t be all that exciting. Nonetheless a little something to keep some small surf in the water through the second half of the week. The swell is going to shift more SW and eventually W through the start of the weekend.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Keeping an eye on the long-range forecast models, upper level patterns are starting to shift a little bit.  No notable swell makers yet, but worth keeping an eye on things.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We’ve got a couple smaller southern hemisphere systems on the way for the weekend and early next week, starting off with some SSW (195-205) on Saturday, followed by an inconsistent S (180-190) on Sunday. The mix of energy could bring some knee to chest high surf to standouts early next week….

Beyond that, I don’t even have an image for you because the southern ocean is looking pretty dormant for the time being. There is some activity off the coast of Chile, but at most it looks like it will send small inconsistent background swell from the S-SSE for the last couple days of the month… otherwise at this point there’s a giant gaping hole in the swell track that just happens to sit in our swell window.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 24th of August. 

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster