SSW eases through midweek. We’re expecting tropical swell from Orlene to arrive Wednesday

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Austin Gendron
(Monday) 9.12.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! SSW-SW (200-210) eases slowly through midweek, but wont drop off a whole lot with a little extra SSW helping its decline.  Wednesday we’re expecting a fun tropical swell from TS Orlene (likely hurricane by the time you read this).  Could mean some moderate sized surf through the second half of the week.  A little SW and NW energy in the background will creep in as well.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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SSW-SW (200-210) continues to bring waist to head high surf to southerly standouts through the first half of the week.  Size will be easing a little more Tuesday and Wednesday for a few areas, but it should remain surfable at least few a couple more days.  Conditions are looking a little onshore through Tuesday, with potentially breezy conditions in the afternoons, but should lighten up again midweek.

We’re looking at the surf rebounding through the second half of the week as energy from Orlene arrives.  The storm is currently located several hundred miles SW of the tip of Baja (More details in the tropical overview).  The gist of it is that we should see swell arriving late Wednesday and pick up more aggressively Thursday, bringing at least waist to head high surf to the exposed southelry facing coast.  There will also be some spotty SW (220-230) and some weak NW (300+) in the water as well adding inconsistent but surfable waves in the knee to waist high range Thursday through the weekend.

Tropical Overview

TS Orlene is currently located several hundred miles SW of Cabo, and strengthening.  The low dropping down the West Coast is going to help pull the system northward Monday and Tuesday.

That northward movement will help direct more of the storms fetch in our direction pushing some new S (175-190) towards California.  Southern California is going to take the brunt of the swell, and could see deepwater heights climb into the 4 to 5 foot range with periods around 12 to 13 seconds.  That’s pretty decent compared to most of the tropical systems we’ve seen this summer.  4 to 5 feet will genearte chest to overhead+ surf for standout southerly exposures in SoCal.  It could be a little bigger even if the storm strengthens more than predicted.  Central California will be seeing closer to 2-3 feet from a slightly steeper angle, and thus smaller knee to chest high+ surf.  The swell will arrive late Wednesday and build to a peak Thursday slowly easing Friday and Saturday.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The North Pacific continues to show signs of life as another Aleutian system brews midweek.  It’s not looking super strong, but the model show it generating 20-25 foot seas on Wednesday before losing some strength.

The good news is that the storm although weaker will follow the swell as it works its way into the Gulf of Alaska later in the week, helping add some extra power to the swell.  As of right now we’re expecting a small to moderate WNW-NW (285-300) swell arriving Saturday.  Most of the fetch is out of the SoCal window, but Central California could see 3 to 4 feet of deepwater swell with periods around 14 to 15 seconds next Sunday.  That means surf should build again, and could bring chest to overhead waves to standouts along the exposed coast.  More details later in the week.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The southern hemi models continue to show a decent system moving out from under New Zealand over the few days.

The storms stays pretty zonal through midweek tracking along the ice and strengthening.  Thursday and Friday though its supposed to get a little bit more of a push to the NE, which would help direct more of the swell our direction.  It’s still way too early to call, but the most up to date models are suggesting 35-40 foot seas, which could translate into a moderate sized pulse of SSW-SW (190-210) with long-periods for around the 23rd/24th.  I’ll have more details on this one as the week progresses.  Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Thursday, September 15, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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