SSW-SW builds to a peak through the end of the week

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 9.8.16

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

SURF TRIP GIVEAWAY…..details in surf forecast! SSW-SW (200-210) builds through the end of the week for Southern California.  Moderate sized surf expected to peak Friday lingering through the weekend and easing into early next week.  Small S-SSW (180-200) arrives Tuesday and will help keep surfable waves in the water through mid-next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live buoy forecast graph here – http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

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Windswell trails off through the end of the week.  There will still be a little influence from the light to moderate onshores each afternoon, but surfwise W-NW exposures will be seeing mostly small ankle to waist high surf.

SSW-SW (200-210) will be the main focus over the next few days.  We should see surf building Thursday and peaking Friday, with size lingering through the day Saturday and then easing Sunday.  Friday standouts are expected to be running  waist to head high+, with magnets/deepwater breaks seeing set waves going overhead or maybe even a little bigger.  Late Thursday and Saturday are looking pretty fun as well.  Conditions are looking lightest in the morning, and there will be a low tide to help things out a little more.  The afternoons are looking a little more tough, with a moderate sized high tide slowing things down and some added texture for the exposed coast as winds increase to around 5 to 10 mph out of the W-SW.  Tuesday a small pulse of S-SSW (180-200) arrives to help maintain 2 feet of deepwater swell through mid-next week.  Periods are going to be a little short (13 to 14 seconds) but it will at least continue to produce some playful knee to chest high surf for better exposures.

Tropical Overview

Post Tropical Cyclone Newton is now inland near the Arizona/New Mexico border, and should be bringing a good drenching to those two states.  Elsewhere there’s an area of low pressure currently located SSW of Acapulco.  It is producing showers and thunderstorms but doesn’t look like it will become a storm for at least a few days.  Long-range models show a 60% chance of the system becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves into the SoCal swell window SSW of Baja.  Global models aren’t in great agreement about the strength except that it wont be a big swell maker from the current look of things.  Time will tell though.  I’ll have more details on this one Monday, and if you should expect anything from it.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The North Pacific is starting to stir a little bit.  Post tropical systems in the West Pacific are rotating around the Pacific Gyre running into cooler air near the Aleutians.  This is causing them to ballon and strengthen a bit.  Right now there is one system we’re going to keep an eye on for early to mid-next week.

The models are in pretty good agreement for the time being, showing a strong fetch of 30-40 kt winds.  The NAVGEM is looking a little stronger, but both the GFS and NAVGEM are showing the storm forming around the same time and in the same area.  It’s still too early to call details, but we be looking at some NW (295-315) swell arriving next weekend.  Most of the fetch is out of the SoCal window, but Central California should keep an eye on this one for some surf.  More details Monday.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

The Southern Hemisphere looks like its starting to wind down a little bit.  We’re still expecting some small S-SSW (180-195) for around the 13th though.

Looking a little further out the short-range models are showing a system brewing near New Zealand over the next day or so generating a small pulse of SW (210-220) for around the 18th.  The storm doesn’t have much longevity, meaning it strengthens quickly and then weakens just as fast.  The models do show it generating 25 foot seas though, which could send some knee to waist high+ waves to standout exposures during the peak.

The long-range models show another zonal system south of the Pitcairn Islands.  Like the one sending swell for the 13th this one will focus most of its energy towards southern Chile, but should spin off a little bit of S-SSW (180-200) energy our direction.  SoCal looks like it will pick up most of the swell from this one, and could see some knee to waist high+ surf blending in with the SSW-SW from the 18th.  It’s still too early to call though.  I’ll have more updates for you on Monday.

Extreme Long-range models (they are currently having some issues so there’s no graphic) are showing a larger fetch moving out from under New Zealand early to mid-next week that could send some SSW-SW (200-220) for the last week of September.  Still keeping an eye on it and will update you next week.  Stay tuned.

The next long-range forecast will be posted on Monday, September 12, 2016.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster

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  • The Nuts

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