SSW swell builds starting this weekend for a solid swell next week

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Austin Gendron
(Wednesday) 7.18.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

As predicted smaller SW (225-235) has started to fill in, and will continue to build through the end of the work week.  Over the weekend we’re expecting the first pulses in a series of gradually more SSW (195-210) swells to arrive.  Those pulses of energy will build on each other with the final and largest long-period swell arriving on Monday and building to a solid peak next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise not a whole lot to get excited about through the end of the work week.  The small to moderate and spotty SW from a system in the Tasman Sea over a week ago should mean occasional knee to waist high+ waves through the end of the week at standouts, while most of the coast is seeing ankle to knee high peelers if lucky.

The swell mix should build a little through the weekend as better angled SSW (200-210) pulses start showing up Saturday and Sunday with longer periods in the 18 to 19 second range.  That swell although not very big does have a more ideal angle for bringing knee to chest high+ surf to the regions exposed coast.  Some standouts could even start to see bigger sets with more consistency in the waist to chest high+ range Sunday afternoon and evening as the combined energy starts to fill out more.  There is a relatively high tide Sunday evening though so that could slow things down a little bit still.

The big news is going to be the swell arriving on Monday morning from the SSW (195-205).  The original system actually ended up being bigger and stronger than  I originally reported on in my last forecast.  And to top it off, the satellite readings suggested that seas were even higher than the 35-40 feet shown on the models.  Basically, an almost ideal situation for sending a consistent-solid moderate to plus sized surf for Socal.  So far it looks like the initial 20-22 second forerunners are going to arrive Monday morning, with the swell building to a peak late Tuesday/early Wednesday.  We’re expecting 4+ feet of deepwater swell with periods around 17 to 18+ seconds.  That’s going to mean wave heights in the chest to overhead+ range along the exposed coast, with standouts seeing sets in the head high to well overhead+ range.  It looks like the swell will settle and linger shifting more to the S (180-195) through the end of next week.  More details if necessary.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Wednesday the 18th Small SW trickles in, could mean some knee to waist high waves at standouts

Thursday the 19th inconsistent SW continues to bring knee to waist high surf to stnadouts.

Friday the 20th SW energy peaks in the knee to waist high+ range

Saturday the 21st More SSW fills in, adding a little size and consistency.

Sunday the 22nd southern hemi mix builds more.  Wave heights start to work into the knee to chest high range, possibly bigger later on.

Monday the 23rd new SSW arrives, building wave heights into the waist to head high range in the morning, possibly chest to overhead+ at standouts late.

Tuesday the 24th SSW builds to a peak in the chest to overhead+ range along the exposed coast, with head high to well overhead surf at standouts.

Tropical Overview

Keeping an eye on an area of low pressure about 1200 miles SW of Baja.

Global models aren’t looking too promising for it to be a swell maker, but worth keeping an eye on.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range forecast looks quieter.

It’s still way too early to call, but we could be looking at some more S (180-190) swell due for the first week of August.  More details in the next forecast.

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster