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Stormy weather and more swell on the way this week

2 Comments
Austin Gendron
by
(Sunday) 1.13.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Lots of varying conditions with these storms rolling through.  Make sure you check your local winds, as they could make a big difference.  Either way, the large surf from the weekend relaxes a little bit Monday as new long-period WNW (280-300) swell fills in, peaking Tuesday.  Another long-period swell is due Wednesday, this one looks bigger, and could linger into the weekend as conditions improve.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise we’re going to see size ease a little bit Monday.  The swell leftover from the weekend should still be bringing some waist to head high+ surf along the exposed coast, potentially bigger in the overhead to overhead+ range.

Conditions are looking like they could be kinda crappy though as another storm works its way through the region.  As I mentioned before though conditions are highly dependent on location still.   Rain is expected to move west to east on Monday, potentially heavy at times.  There’s flash flood warnings which are warranted especially in burn areas.  You can expect gusty S-SE winds as well, likely ahead of the heaviest rains when the front moves through.  Showers should taper Tuesday.  The weather through the second half of the week is a bit more questionable as a less confident storm approaches.

Wednesday the 9th is going to start off a little smaller, with leftovers from Tuesday in the water.  There could be some additional energy starting to slowly build through the day though as the weather starts to go south again.  The strongest part of the storm is supposed to move through on Thursday.  The swell will build as onshore southerly winds also get stronger.  Overall doesn’t look very good for surf for most areas, but there could be some chest to overhead+ waves at standouts, possibly bigger late in the day as more of the storms swell energy fills in.

The poor confidence in the storm is because there have been some changes to the track and intensity recently.  It’s still positioned pretty well to generate a quick westerly swell that is going to have some serious punch on Friday.  As far as size goes, the charts are suggesting that the Harvest buoy could see swell heights up to around 15 feet.  Similar to the swell that filled in mid last week, the exposed coast should be seeing overhead to well overhead surf.  It’s possible that there could be some bigger exposures seeing double overhead or double overhead+ during the peak Friday.  Size will start to steadily ease through the weekend following the exit of the storm.  It’s possible that the conditions could improve though as high pressure builds.  Some models are suggesting we could even see offshore winds.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 14th moderate mixed up storm swell and potential for wet weather.  Surf is expected to be running waist to head high+, possibly bigger late. Conditions are going to struggle with an incoming storm and southerly winds.

Tuesday the 15th new Westerly swell peaks through the morning .  Wave heights could be running chest high to overhead+ at standouts, with potential for bigger sets at westerly magnets.  Winds could continue to be a problem, as showers become less likely.

Wednesday the 16th unsettled weather continues.  Wave heights could be running chest to overhead at standouts, possibly bigger in the evening as new westerly swell mix builds

Thursday the 17th swell mix builds into the head high to a couple feet oveerhjead range at standouts.  More average spots could be more consistently in the chest to head high+ range.  Conditions are looking questionable for most areas with onshore southerly winds expected.

Friday the 18th The WNW swell mix picks up as the storm works its way out of Socal.  Wave heights could build into the overhead to well overhead+ range, possibly double overhead or bigger at magnets . Conditions are looking questionable, but could start to improve depending on the storm.

Saturday the 19th swell mix starts to ease into the chest overhead+ range with potential for offshore conditions as high pressure builds.

Sunday the 20th smaller leftovers expected.  Light winds in the morning, with a very high tide.  Wave heights likely in the waist to head high range

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

As we look further out the long-range models are continuing to show a very similar active pattern continuing with another longer-period WNW swell brewing near the dateline next weekend

This system is worth noting because of its size.  It could potentially generate 45-50 fo0t seas in the mid latitudes.  That’s very similar to the storm that generated the swell that’s arriving Monday and will peak Tuesday.  It’s still way too early to call, but we’re likely to see another very long-period pulse of energy arriving around the 23rd and likely building to a peak on the 24th.  More details later to follow.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Nothing too exciting to report there.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster

http://www.solspot.com/

  • https://www.facebook.com/app_scoped_user_id/YXNpZADpBWEc2U3lncWNXX0txcWl5cEttLVhSakdxU0lMVjdCa3F6RFd5YXVrUVA1a0YyYm9YNTl4bzJWb284OUlQVFlaekgxUU1scG0tVWtqU0JhU1YwMFAwM242Uk5IQldtR0RnTEd4R2xsbVQ5awZDZD/ Kurt Scherler

    When are you going to update? it seems it’s once every 2-3 weeks. :(

    • http://www.solspot.com AMG

      Sorry Kurt, I’m writing it now. Just been very busy. Finding time to write the forecasts is hard.