Stormy weather on the way for the weekend

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Austin Gendron
(Wednesday) 1.30.19

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Overlapping long-period WNW (295-310) swell continues to build through Thursday, with another pulse arriving for Friday with a passing storm.  The combination of these swells should mean an increase in surf through the start of the weekend.  Saturday we’re expecting a second stronger storm that will maintain size, but with worse conditions, and then Sunday/Monday another system roles through.  Not as strong but still likely to mean mixed up conditions and a blend of short, medium and long period swell.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Surfwise we’re going to see smaller but building surf through the end of the workweek.  That’s going to coincide with the incoming storms, which are pegged to bring increasing onshore winds and wind swell on top.  Thursday’s system doesn’t seem like its going to be too much of a detractor, with the new swell mix bringing  knee to chest high surf, and onshore but not surf killing conditions.  There could even be a calming period with lighter variable winds in the afternoon.

Friday’s storm is going to be a bit more of a mess, with stronger southerly winds picking up through the day especially near Santa Barbara and in the farther west end of the region.  The storm is expected to move through late Friday and Saturday.  It’s pretty slow moving and should generate rain and showers along the coast, as well as southerly wind swell mixed with the westerly swell mix building in as well.  Wave heights are expected to peak Saturday and Sunday in the waist to head high+ range, possibly larger at more exposed spots that are crossed up by the combo energy.  Surf should start to ease a little into early next week.

The third storm in the series is due Sunday night into Monday, and is looking weaker, but will still bring some rain and showers, as well as onshore winds and continued texture and bump on the surface of the easing surf.  Wave heights should be running knee to chest high by early next week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 31st looks a little questionable, with wind swell added to the mix as a storm rolls through, bringing rain and onshores.  Wave heights expected to pick up a little bit with knee to chest high waves at standouts.  Lighter conditions possible later in the day.

Friday the 1st surf could pick up a little bit, with a mix of southerly wind swell generated as prefrontal winds start to push onshore.  It looks like the strongest part of the storm is supposed to pass through overnight.

Saturday the 2nd breezy westerly winds for most areas due Saturday, generating more wind swell for westerly exposures on top of the lingering swell still in the water.  Wave heights could peak in the waist to head high+ range, but conditions will be tricky.

Sunday the 3rd Surf should hold through the day as another storm approaches.  Wave heights will start to decrease in size through the afternoon/evening.  Conditions continue to look textured and bumpy.

Monday the 4th lingering hangover from the weekends storms.  There could be some breezier onshores as low pressure pushes east.  Eave heights should be backing off into the knee to chest high+ range.

Tuesday the 5th Northerly flow along the Central Coast and southern coast of Santa Barbara continues, possibly generating cleaner yet smaller surf in SB.  Elsewhere size eases with a developing offshore trend

 Wednesday the 6th potential for a Santa Ana style event surf could be easing into the ankle to waist high+ range at standouts.

Tropical Overview

No tropical cyclones at this time

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

Long range synoptic models are not in great agreement although enough so that  I can talk on at least a general pattern.  The active part of the MJO (that storm production area) remains over the western part of the North Pacific through the long term.  The Jet Stream wavers a bit locally though with the models showing it pushing further south or remerging over Southern California…

That means more smaller but still fun long-period swell in the forecast.  The image above may be a bit far out, but its possible there could be one of these more punchy swells arriving around the 10th of December.  Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

A couple small background swells expected from the southern hemisphere this weekend, and possibly mid next week.  This weekend’s pulse is pretty much shot, but next week’s could bring some small playful surf as the combo swell mix becomes more attractive.

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster