Tropical swell mix and southerly swells on tap

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 9.6.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Sorry folks, been out of town a lot lately, and just happen to have some free tome to drop a forecast for you.  Looks like Hurricane Olivia produced some new energy that should be building on top of leftovers from Normal that are still in the water.  In addition we’re expecting some S-SSW (180-195) energy from the southern hemisphere to arrive late Saturday, and hold through early next week.  Then further out we’ve got another fun sized S-SSW (185-195) mid to late next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

The current mix of tropical swell and southern hemi should continue to bring waist to head high, and possibly even a little bigger at standouts through the start of the weekend, and then new S-SSW energy and some additional wind swell arriving over the weekend should help boost wave heights a bit more through the start of next week.

Winds are likely to add some textured bump to the surface through the weekend and early next week, but there should be some pockets of cleaner surf possibly running waist to head high+ range.  Standouts could be running chest to overhead or even a little bigger.  That’s expected to last through Monday/Tuesday before the mix starts to settle.

Following that we’re looking at more swell from south of the Pitcairn Islands arriving on Wednesday.  Size looks a little smaller, and likely less consistent, but still a fun run of surf through the second half fo the week with standouts running waist to chest high+, possibly a little bigger with the leftovers mixed in from earlier in the week.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Friday the 7th The mix of southern hemi and tropical swell should bring waist to chest high+ surf to standouts, possibly building more through the day.  Conditions look a bit chunky in the afternoon.

Saturday the 8th swell mix builds more with wave heights in the waist to head high, possibly head high+ range at standouts that like straight south swells.

Sunday the 9th more southern hemi arrives as hurricane swell mix lingers.  Standouts could build into the waist to head high+ range with larger sets at standoiuts.

Monday the 10th Fun chest to overhead+ surf at standouts possible.  More average breaks in the waist to head high+ range.

Tuesday the 11th Surf holds through the morning before starting to ease later in the day.

Wednesday the 12th Swell mix left over from earlier in the week starts to ease as new S-SSW arrives.  Wave heights expected to be in the waist to head high+ range

Thursday the 13th Swell mix holds in the waist to head high+ range.

Tropical Overview

There’s potential that we could see some more tropical swell mid to late next week from a system that is brewing south of Baja right now.  Global models aren’t looking all that impressive though, maybe storm force winds.

We’ll have to keep an eye on it.  It’s headed out towards where Olivia is right now.  Keep watching the tropical models for updates.

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

There’s some typhoon action going on at the moment but none of it is going to send swell towards California.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

We’re keeping an eye on the long-range models as there’s some storm activity brewing south of the Pitcairns and Easter Island over the weekend that could end up generating some decent fetch as it moves east.

It’s a little early to call, and the storm has a mostly eastward trajectory, but some of the fetch pushes north, and could send some smaller but consistent swell towards California.  There’s still time for the system to push a little further north though so worth keeping an eye on.  Either way we’re hoping to see some new southerly swell arriving around the 16th/17th.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron

Surf Forecaster


  • Snowriderz

    looking for recent update Austin ?