Tropical Updates

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Austin Gendron
(Tuesday) 8.7.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Tropical swell from Hurricane John, and TS Kristy are due this weekend into early next week.  The models are now showing a more promising track for John (160-170), and it looks like Kristy could get pulled north and northeast to send a smaller SSW (195-205) pulse to follow.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

We’ve still got a few days until the swell is officially here, but things are looking on the up and up.  Here’s a quick look at what the storm is currently doing, and how its projected to continue moving over the next couple days.

On Sunday the models were showing a tougher track with Ilean leading the way, pulling what is now John in and  riding close to Baja, which would cut off the swell angle.  Now John is leading the way and has at this point absorbed Ilean, that has pulled the combined-system further west, and as the storm peaks its going to continue pushing NW, focusing most of its energy towards Southern California.  As of right now the initial part of the swell is going to be pretty steep still (155-160) early Thursday, but as the swell builds it will be come more consistent and start to swing more S-SSE from around 165-175, which is more ideal for areas like North SD and Orange County, as well as Southern Ventura County.

Wave heights are looking pretty decent for standout breaks, with potential for surf running chest to overhead+, maybe even a little bigger at magnets.  More average and shadowed spots will have a range of size in the smaller to moderate size range.  Wave heights are expected to peak Friday mid to late in the day.  keep an eye on the tide as it will be on the move through the middle of the day.  Wave heights should hold through Saturday morning before easing through the weekend.  Kristy (currently a tropical storm, but likely to be a hurricane at least briefly) is going to feel the pull of a low in the Gulf of Alaska and Hurricane John too.

That pull is going to be enough to focus some of Kristy’s energy towards Southern California adding a reinforcing pulse of tropical swell Sunday.  It should help maintain some moderate sized surf through the start of next week.  The key will be the more SSW (195-205 angle), which will help bring a little bit better energy for areas like Malibu, LA and SD.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Tuesday the 7th a little boost to the mix of southern hemi and wind swell should mean a few more waist to chest high+ waves at standouts.

Wednesday the 8th swell mix holds through the morning, could ease a little late.  Watching for new tropical energy to start creeping in late.

Thursday the 9th tropical swell could start to build.  Wave heights potentially in the chest to overhead+ range, more likely in the waist to head high range, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Friday the 10th tropical swell builds to a peak mid to late in the day with surf ranging from knee to chest high in the more sheltered areas to chest to overhead+ or bigger at standouts and magnets.

Saturday the 11th swell starts to swing more south, so there could be a bit of day to day differences in surf size, but overall the peak holds through the morning before easing later in the day.

Sunday the 12th SSW tropical energy joins the fading swell from John.  surf should be running waist to head high+ at standouts

Monday the 13th The tropical swell mix eases through the day,

Tropical Overview

Tropics are active with Kristy and John as mentioned above

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast is looking quieter for the time being

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Long-range continues to hint at S (180-190) for the middle of the month.

Last weeks model showed a pretty hefty system in this area south of the Pitcairn Islands, but things have settled a little bit.  The storm still has a good N-NE track, that pushes the storm pretty far north (near 35S).  That’s going to add some size and consistency.

Better news looks like it could be a stronger system a couple more days out from that in the same area.  Building on the already disturbed sea state, this system could generate another overlapping and potentially more potent pulse for around the 16th.  Stay tuned

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster