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unsettled weather continues this week, with a couple pulses of westerly swell in the mix

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Austin Gendron
by
(Monday) 3.12.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Small SSW (185-195) will help bring some playful ankle to waist high+ surf to the exposed southerly breaks Tuesday, but otherwise not much else going on.  A series of storms taking aim at California are going to deliver a couple rounds of swell and rain this week, with a potentially potent system due early next week.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

We’ve got some rain headed towards the coast Tuesday, but not much surf.  There will be a little bit of southerly energy maintaining ankle to waist high+ surf at standouts, but for the most part just small textured and weak energy.  The next swell is due on Wednesday thanks to the same storm that’s delivering rain Tuesday.

After dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska the low was able to gain some traction with a fetch aimed almost directly at Southern California.  The westerly swell will have medium periods around 10-12 seconds, and is due to arrive Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, building to a 3-5 foot peak late Wednesday/Thursday.  Surfwise that means waist to head high+ surf.

The surf mix will start to ease a little Thursday, but Friday another system is expected to swing into Southern California.  This time its going to have more of a direct hit, generating breezy onshore winds and another localized wind swell.  Surf is expected to pick up again, peaking in the waist to head high range along the exposed coast.  Conditions are expected to improve a little bit as the swell eases through the weekend.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Monday the 12th keeping an eye on extra southerly energy filling in, wave heights expected to hold in the ankle to waist high range.

Tuesday the 13th A little extra s.hemi in the water and new WNW starts to build.  Standouts could see more consistent knee to waist high+ surf at standouts.

Wednesday the 14th westerly swell builds into the waist to head high+ range late.  Conditions could deteriorate with onshore winds in the afternoon.

Thursday the 15th westerly swell mix relaxes a little bit, with standouts still running knee to chest high+.

Friday the 16th westerly swell mix works its way into Southern California again.  Wave heights could build to waist to head high late in the day.

Saturday the 17th wind swell and WNW-NW eases as wet weather continues.  Surf likely to be in the knee to chest high range for most standouts.

Sunday the 18th WNW-NW swell mix eases.  Standouts expected to be running knee to waist high+.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

North Pacific Swell Forecast

The long-range models are a crapshoot at this point. It’s that time of year where the models are fairly inconsistent, and with a stormy pattern ahead of us its uncertain how accurate the models actually are. Either way, the current models are showing the stormy pattern continuing next week, with a fairly potent wet storm arriving late Monday/Tuesday.

It looks like the system could tap into sub tropical moisture early next week, spinning up a good amount of rain for the Central Coast and Southern California Monday night/Tuesday.

As far as the surf goes, it’s still too early to call, but this is a very localized system, and if it is as strong as the models are hinting, it could bring a solid southerly wind swell to Central California and a more westerly pulse for Southern California. In addition the storm track looks like its going to generate NW energy to mix in as well. I’ll have more details later in the week. Stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Thursday the 15th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster
http://www.solspot.com/