Winter swells on the way… Water quality still questionable for a few days

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Austin Gendron
(Thursday) 1.11.18

Short Range Surf Forecast Overview

Tough start to the week, and thoughts are with those effected by the mudslides and flooding in Montecito, Carpenteria and elsewhere.  Swell mix tapers some more Thursday as conditions continue to improve.  New long-period WNW-NW (295-305) arrives Friday, and should continue through the weekend.  Another round of long period energy from a more westerly angle arrives Monday, for a better run of swell that should last through midweek.  Read more for details.

Get the live Southern California Buoy Forecast graph here - http://solspot.com/buoy/oceanside-offshore/forecast.

Hopefully most of you are taking a break from the dirty water conditions… But its going to get tough here soon.

Friday new long-period swell starts filling in as the conditions continue to improve. Periods are expected to be in the 17 to 18 second range from a WNW-NW angle (295-305).  The surf for the exposed coast could hold in the waist to head high range, but its likely there could be more consistency in the chest to head high+ range at standouts Saturday.  Surf settles Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure is going to protect us from any winter storms in the near future, which means we’re expecting offshores through the weekend, then light variable/offshore winds at least through mid-next week. Good news considering the next big storm is brewing near the Kamchatka Peninsula right now. It’s generating 40-45 foot seas, and expected to continue to do so through through Thursday with a fairly good trajectory for California. The duration and focused direction are going to mean long periods (forerunners around 23-24 seconds) arriving Monday.  The swell will build to a 4-6 foot peak Tuesday with periods around 17 seconds. Surfwise that means wave heights in the head high to well overhead+ range along the exposed coast. Probably a bit bigger at magnets. The swell is expected to hold its peak through early Wednesday at least.

Here’s what to expect on a day-to-day basis this week:

Thursday the 11th Surf should ease into the waist to head high range at standouts.

Friday the 12th new long period WNW-NW starts building.  the swell mix should mean waist to head high surf at standouts.

Saturday the 13th The swell mix peaks, with standouts running waist to head high+, possibly a little bigger.

Sunday the 14th surf eases into the waist to chest high+ range.

Monday the 15th new long-period WNW energy arrives, wave heights expected to increase into the chest to overhead+ range.

Tuesday the 16th new WNW-NW continues building.  Standouts could be seeing head high to well overhead+ surf.

Wednesday the 17th WNW-NW swell mix expected to hold standouts likely to be in the head high to well overhead high+ range.

Tropical Overview

Nothing in the tropics

Long-Range Surf and Swell Forecast

Doesn’t look like the exposed coast is going to get much of a break next week. The models are showing another low swooping through the mid latitudes a couple thousand miles off the coast.

It’s still too early to call, but the current forecast shows potential for the system to generate 35-40+ foot seas. At that close proximity, its definitely expected to have an impact, and could generate another sizable pulse for Central California. The fetch is a little further north than we’d want for Socal, but still close enough that it should help add some reinforcing energy to next week’s swell.

Long-range models are suggesting that we could see another local fetch popping up in the mid latitudes right off the coast. We’ll have to see how that one plays out, but it could mean another medium-long period pulse coming head on for the end of next week stay tuned.

South Pacific Swell Forecast

Minimal swell coming out of the South Pacific at this time.

Next long-range forecast expected for Monday the 15th.  

Austin Gendron
Surf Forecaster