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Adam Wright
by
(Friday) 3.9.12

Forecast for Saturday has increasing Southern Hemi, more windswell, and clean conditions.

Forecast Overview

Saturday looks like a pretty decent surf day for the exposed breaks. Again we have a little fatty tide in the morning but the peak of the high is moving further and further from the dawn patrol so the cleaner morning window is holding open a bit longer.

The Swell

Our swell mix will be a blend of building S-SSW swell (180-200) and some steady but steep angled (295-300) NW windswell.

The Surf

Most exposed spots will be in the knee-chest high range with some long waits between the sets particularly during the high tide peak and the tide drain after it starts to dip down. The standout S facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder-head high peaks. I would look for the best shape at the combo beach breaks that like a higher tide…but the S facing points/reefs will be good spots to check as well.

The Weather

Look for sunny skies and warming air temps on Saturday. The winds stay light out of the offshore NE-ENE in the morning and eventually turn onshore out of the W around lunchtime with some some moderate 8-10 knot WNW-NW winds filling in through the afternoon.

The Skinny

Saturday looks like a “playful” surf day…rideable with the right equipment and even fun if the tides and the wind are cooperating. We do have a high tide slowing things down in the morning but the peak of the high is closer to 10:30am and it doesn’t go much over 4.5-feet so the dawn patrol should have a nice tide push to go with the increasing swell. Again keep in mind that the southern hemi is inconsistent even though it is building…so having a little patience and maybe hitting up a beach break that has a bit more space (and has some exposure to the combo energy) will give you a better shot at picking off a few fun ones. Tomorrow will be the warmer day of the weekend…might be a good family beach day.

  • shirtless in san ysidro

    Anybody else experience a total let-down today? I was in Baja Norte at various spots, and they all were soft, with super tiny shore break. I thought the South swell would hit but it was friggin lame. Also, a friend said even Imperial Beach was only 1-2 foot max. Que paso?

    • yoyo

      a pacific lake of disappointment this morning. 1-2 would be a generous assessment.

    • http://surf.solspot.com Adam – Solspot Forecaster

      It is basically an inconsistent straight S swell (180-185)…which is not a good angle for most of South SD and is really isn’t even that good for most of the breaks near the border of North Baja…you were probably seeing leftover windswell and just a touch of Southern Hemi, for the areas you are talking about you want the swell to be bigger and coming in from more of a SSW-SW direction (195-225), even IB is shadowed…with the beach facing almost due west.

      You really should make sure that you have the swell angles for your spots dialed in…sometimes we get lucky on large or close to shore storms, where the swell angle spread is really wide (like a 180-220 or a 270-300) where you can basically head to any beach you want and get waves…but when the angle narrows and the swell is smaller (like today) you need to make sure your break has good exposure to the direction it is coming in from and it can handle the tides, winds, ect…

      It sounds like it was pretty disappointing down there…but it is bigger at the really exposed S facing spots…a lot of breaks in OC are holding in the waist-chest high range with the good sandbars seeing some shoulder-head high sets, which is basically what I was calling for in the forecast…in fact here is the “surf section” of yesterday’s forecast word-for-word…

      Most exposed spots will be in the knee-chest high range with some long waits between the sets particularly during the high tide peak and the tide drain after it starts to dip down. The standout S facing spots and excellent combo breaks will be more consistently in the waist-chest high range with some shoulder-head high peaks. I would look for the best shape at the combo beach breaks that like a higher tide…but the S facing points/reefs will be good spots to check as well.

      I was expecting a little more windswell in the mix which is why I was calling for some larger sizes in South SD but that dropped out pretty fast last night, as winds backed off, which sucks but windswell can be fickle and having the winds change direction or stop blowing on the surface even an hour less than they were forecast will kill it off. Fortunately the swells continue to build…and more NW energy is on tap as we head into next week…definitely look for some larger surf by the middle of the work week.

      • yoyo

        the lake of disappointment was a reference to HB. it wasn’t doing anything this morning. it was barely SUPable.

        http://media.egotvonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/dolphins.jpg

        • http://surf.solspot.com adam wright

          dolphin golden showers…where the heck did you find that :) and how do I order one!

          I have been watching the pier most of the morning and there have been shoulder-high+ sets coming through…more consistently now as the tide is dropping. The tide bogged it down…maybe you just missed the sets. Don’t get me wrong…I was expecting a bit more this morning too…but things are on the rise so we still get a chance at more waves this weekend and next week.

          • yoyo

            the internet presents dolphin allusions in mysterious ways!

            i have hope for tomorrow. but watching from the pier from 6-8 this morning was a buzzkill. and here i thought the problem was too LITTLE tide! oh well, got a donut out of it.

          • http://surf.solspot.com adam wright

            hmmmm donuts. Thanks for the feedback yoyo…I really do appreciate details about the surf, helps dial in the forecasts.

  • Shirtless in San Ysidro

    Thanks for the info, Adam. The swell angle numbers are especially helpful since I’m pretty dumb when it comes to figuring stuff like that out. Much appreciated.

  • I need surf!

    south bay, north bay both sucked a fatty. think we’ll score anything up here for sunday?

    I NEED SURF!!


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